Four Keys to Solar

The graph above shows a summary of yearly loads for an old house with new solar thermal panels, new engine as power/heater/cooling system, thermal water storage and two cars with the New Engine Type in an OLD car.  An EV (model 3) is added to compare.  Note the energy needed is MORE for the EV (0.625) than the New Engine type (0.5).  A Telsa with the New Engine Type would be 1.5 times LESS fuel than an EV version of the car due to battery weight.... 

To make fuel it costs 1.5 x more energy, but the battery in an EV costs in fuel economy ~1.5 times more, thus it is a wash in the end.  In the above example, an old car is used to compare with old IC engines in the other graph in this section.

The electrical loads are assumed the same at 0.75 GGE at the house and the water heating load is assumed the same at 0.5 GGE/day, as used in equations below.

Solar PV equation is:  0.75 + 0.625 + 0.5 = 1.875 GGE = 63 kwh.  Note that the 0.5 for water heating is required from the PV panels as there is no combined cycle.

Solar Thermal equation is: (0.75 + 0.5) x 1.5 =1.875 GGE = 63 kwh.  Note that the figure is the SAME as for the PV panel, and INCLUDES hot water from the engine from engine combined cycle.  As electricity is generated, the waste heat is stored in water for hot water needs, thus it is "free" as an input.  The 1.5 factor assumes ALL electricity and heat is from fuels that are made and stored prior to use.  This is actually NOT the case as electricity during the solar day is not from fuel and would be 1.5 x less.  This analysis is the worst case to be overly fair to PV.

Heating in building

The heating in building is taken from actual data from authors personal house.  The house is 2100 sq feet on two levels, with main and basement, plus a shop at 1200 sq feet.  

The heating load is peak in Winter at 6.25 GGE and in summer the load is assumed to be zero (no air conditioning).  The climate is mountainous in Western USA.  It represents a colder and more general case for most of mid to northern USA and Canada.  

With this technology it really does not matter what the climate is other than cloud cover due to the fuel storage.  Extremes in summer are balanced by winter loads.  No air conditioning in summer means more heating in Winter.  More air conditioning in summer means less heating in Winter.  Arizona vs Northern Idaho is only a factor of cloud cover, not temperature or latitude.  

This is only possible with fuel storage and SOLAR THERMAL.  Snow is removed immediately with this system, unlike solar PV where snow blocks out panels for extended periods of time (months?).

Total load

1) Electrical 0.75

2) Cars 0.5

3) Water heating 0.5

4) House thermal (heating or cooling) 6.26

Total = 8

Average = 4.875 =~5.

Notice that fuel making is NOT included due to the fact that waste heat is stored and recovered in the process, thus making it nearly 100% efficient from a total energy capture stand point, which is KEY to the superior performance over PV.  During the summer, the thermal efficiency goes UP by 2-3 times for making electricity to make fuels and this extra electricity is converted to fuels.  PV can only waste the energy due to the lack of storage in fuels.

The assumption is that Summer PV is twice (2x) Winter PV output.  This is a common assumption in solar panel sales.  The ratio can vary from 1.5 to 5 depending on factors such as clouds and snow.  2x is assumed here to be more average for most people.

PV solar panels need batteries and they are very expensive.  Lead-acid can be $278/kwh.  Tesla claims $200/kwh.  1 day is 1.875 GGE = 63 kwh.  $278/kwh x 63 kwh = $17514.  https://www.wholesalesolar.com/1898678/crown/battery-banks/crown-1300ah-48vdc-62-400-wh-24-battery-bank 

A solar panel system for 63 kwh would cost around $56,826 and one day of battery would cost around $17514, for a total of $74,340.  This only covers electrical, cars and water heating, but no house.   https://www.wholesalesolar.com/shop/solar-kits/off-grid-kits/page/2 

To cover the peak load of 8 GGE (270 kwh) and battery for 7 days, it would require 1890 kwh (270 x 7 = 1890):

Panels: 270 kwh x $35088/38.9 kwh = $243,541. 

Batteries for 7 days:  1890 kwh x $278/kwh= $525,420

Total=$525k + 244k= $769k... 

This is much to expensive to be considered a valid solution.  Can you see why the Green New Deal wants to rebuild the housing stock with super insulation?  The cost of PV solar exceeds the cost of building a new house just to carry the thermal loads...

Reality is you need 1/2 month energy storage, at least.  270 kwh/day x 15 days = 4050 kwh... x $278/kwh= $1.125 million battery.  Won't work...

8 GGE/day x 15 days = 120 Gallons.  3 x 42 gallon barrels at $25 each or $75 could store that amount of energy.  1,125,000/75 =15,000 to 1 in costs.  Clearly Plastic tanks are the low cost solution with fuel making as the supply.

MOVE Summer to Winter...

To move Summer to Winter it would require around 2 months of storage at the average of 8 GGE/day.  8 GGE x 62.5 days = 500 gallons.  12 barrels at $25/bbl = $300.  A single 500 gallon tank can cost around $300-500 and be put on a trailer or in the ground.  A 1000 gallon propane tank is around $2500.  A 500 gallon tank is 66.84 sq feet or 1.894 sq meters.  An 8 ft x 8 ft x 1ft wall tank could fit in most garages to store the 500 gallons.  

A battery is over 20 times that volume.

A fuel maker is around $3000.  It is much cheaper to have a fuel maker than to have batteries.  This is the key to lower costs of the New Engine Type technology.

SOLAR THERMAL COSTS?

The cost of the New Engine Tech is not firmly known yet, but here is an estimate:

1) Engine system = $15k

2) Solar thermal roof $40k

3) fuel maker = $6k

4) Water storage and miscellaneous= $2k

Total = 15+40+6+2=$63K

A metal roof would cost around $22k.

A heater/cooler would cost around $8k

Total = $30k.

63-30= $33k extra for new system.  

If the system lasts 55 years (easy math), the cost is $33,000/55=$600/year... for 60,000 kwh/year = 1 cents/kwh.  There will be likely around 1 cent/kwh for maintenance, which makes the total cost for solar around 2.0 cent/kwh...  

Fuel factor of 1.5  X 33.7 kwh/GGE X $0.02/kwh= $1/GGE, which is LESS than OIL.  Grid at 12 cents/kwh = $4.04/GGE.  4:1 ratio.  Understand?

It would save around 3700 GGE/year from the the old system with gas heating and old piston cars, shown below.  (10.125 GGE/day x 365.242 day/y =3698 GGE)

At $2/gal that = $7400/year.

ROI is 7.4k/33k= 22% at the lowest.  

SOLAR PV...

How much would the electricity from a Solar PV + battery system cost?

The average load (see picture above) is 4.875 GGE x 33.7  kwh/GGE =164.29... x 365.24 days/y = 60,000 kwh/year. 

Assume Li-ion current prices of $200/kwh and 10 year life for battery.  1890 x 200 = $378k.

378k/10 years = $37,800/year  for 60,000 kwh/y = 63 cents/kwh.

Panels $244k/20 year = 12,200/year for 60,000 kwh/year  = .203

Total is 83.33 cents/kwh ($28/GGE) for solar PV with battery for 7 days.  Add in grid management fees and the stand down costs of paying plants in summer NOT to produce and you can have prices in excess of 1.5-2 times more than this 83 cents/kwh.  

Some say $1.6/kwh for a 100% renewable grid without nuclear, compared to $0.02/kwh for:

New Engine Type + Solar Thermal + fuel maker+fuel tank+hot water storage.   

Cost ratio 80:1 ? 

The key is thermal loads and storage with fuel making.  Make fuel in Summer, use in Winter.  Solar Thermal MUST be on the house or building and NOT remote on a farm for the full benefit of solar thermal.  4/5th of the energy is lost in solar farms.  

Solar thermal storage could be on a solar farm to offer night power if grid is the only option.  Storage is in water, which is cheap.  Several solar thermal grid plants already use thermal storage to run at night.

Solar and wind farms do not have what it takes to allow a house to supply the heat, electricity, and fuel for 2 cars, nor get to zero/neutral CO2, if that is the goal.

At 80 times more costly, the Green New Deal IS NOT VALID.  Can't work...and a total waste of money.

The above graph show old house with gas heating, gas water heating, electricity and fuel from gasoline from a gasoline station.

Difference is:

1) cars 4.125 with old IC engine cars vs 0.5 with new.

2) electricity via engine at house (0.75) vs from grid power plant at 3x more due to remote gen.

3) house hot water from gas vs combined heat and power giving free water heating.

4) house heating loads are the same, with gas for old and Solar Thermal for new. 

Peak Winter load is 13.25 GGE/day = 446.5 kwh/day

The average load is 10.125 GGE/day x 365.24=3698 GGE/year.

This is the base line fuel consumption for two cars and house/year = ~3700 GGE = 124,622 kwh/year.  This can be eliminated by the new system...

The key here is that electricity generation at a plant wastes the heat in the process.  That heat in Winter could be used to heat a house or building.  It is called combined heat and power, where electricity is generated and waste is used to heat water.  

Using waste heat is difficult to do without this New Engine Type due to the toxic exhaust emissions from the old IC engines and the low durability.  The efficiency of old IC engine is also very poor at low power - perhaps lower than 5% - whereas this new engine type is 50% at low power and up to 75% with fuels at moderate loads. 

The key issue is that the Old IC engines CANNOT use hot water to create a power cycle.  This New Engine Type CAN.  This allows this engine to use fuels efficiently, as well as use hot solar water from Solar Thermal panels.  This is a new capability not found in any other engine...  

This New Engine Type is a solar motor as well as a fuel motor.  This is a key to solving energy.

Some would say that a Stirling cycle would work.  Sure, but not with fuel well or as a micro grid.  Efficiency would be less than 25%, perhaps 5% at low power, or 3-10 times worse than this New Engine Type.  The Stirling engine could not respond well to load variations like the New Engine Type can which was designed for micro grids.  $100's of millions have been spent on Stirling engines R&D...won't work.  The cycle is key as to why not...

The amount of solar power varies depending on season and Latitude.  

In general the amount is around 2 to 1 Summer to Winter, and this 2x is used for these calculations.  Northern countries have long Summers days and short Winter days.  The Winter is the worst case and drives systems costs requiring more and more storage, or larger and larger panel areas.

The only way to solve this solar problem with PV solar is to over size the system for Winter and waste the excess electricity in the summer, due to the lack of storage in a battery.  No Battery is large enough to move Summer solar electricity harvest to Winter for use where it is needed.    

This New Engine Type solves this critical issue by storing fuel, instead of electricity, made from Summer generation and using that excess in the Winter in the engine.  This can result in a system that is at least 6 to 12 times cheaper than one with PV and batteries, and perhaps even over 20 times in northern climates.

Basically, there is NO OTHER TECHNOLOGY that can do this that is known on the market today.  The key element is the engine, not the new solar panels.  Solar Thermal panels exist that could be used with the engine.  New Solar Thermal panels would be a dramatic improvement over old, but not key to this all working.  

The future will be home Solar Thermal with Fuel Making due to this simple Winter/Summer fact of living on planet earth.  Rewnewable energy is energy harvesting and storage is everything.  Without it, it won't work.  A simple farmer knows this storage fact.  The type of energy storage, fuel vs electricity, drives the processor.  Fuel needs engines, not electrics.  Thermal loads are 3-5 times electrical loads in Northern climates.  This Thermal load advantage makes them much less expensive than PV panels.  The fuel makes the battery option look completely silly (15,000:1).

PV panels cannot work...  Sorry, but the numbers clearly show this.  Please realize that the grid is NOT a battery to be used for free by wind/solar PV farms that want to piggy back on the fuel used on the grid. The grid will be gone when everybody does not need it.  This technology allows a common person to be cheaper than grid with stand alone power for both houses and cars.  

Nobody comes close to 24/7, 365 days/year RE that is on demand reliable without scamming off of somebody else's generator/fuel.  Solar and wind farms are NOT stand alone and must rely on fuels at some point to remain viable.  Those costs are many times the costs of solar and wind by themselves, and thus seem low, but in reality are very high.

2-5 cents/kwh vs 60-160 cent/kwh.  30-80 times cost different for 100% RE.